1. Cain Preparing To Back Gingrich
If the New York Post is to be believed (and that is very much an open question), Herman Cain is preparing to throw his support behind Gingrich. This could put Gingrich either ahead of Romney or within striking distance on him in most major primary states. Though I’ve seen polls from Iowa and New Hampshire that show Paul in third place, though he trails both Gingrich and Romney by close to double digits. It’s worth hoping some of the Cain folks will disregard his advice and jump for Paul, but not likely.
2. Atheist Chaplains
It sounds like oxymoron, but the Military Association of Atheists and Freethinkers is pushing for the military to bring on thousands of atheist or humanist chaplains to counsel atheist and agnostic soldiers. If the military ultimately refuses this request in a post-DADT America, I’d regard it as more than a bit hypocritical, or at best selective. But as is usually the case, no one will shed a tear for the atheists given short shrift.
3. Return of the Megafauna
Scientists have been wanting to clone the woolly mammoth for some time now, but with the recovery of intact bone marrow preserved in permafront, they now have all the materials and technology they need to make it happen (in theory). I say go for it, clone the sh*t out of them. If only the giant sloth’s genetic material were so readily available…
4. Growing Organs
Progress marches on in the field of lab-grown human organs, with more and more encouraging results. I can only wonder how the world of a few centuries from now will deal with the reduction or elimination of consequences for hedonistic behavior. Taxing lab-grown organs or replacement surgeries? Legislating the standards applied to eligibility for the surgery (lifelong smokers are not eligible or pushed to the end of the waiting list)? Oh, and on an unrelated note, my new word of the day, thanks to this article, is “invaginate.”
5.12.11
2.12.11
Early Edition
1. Krauthammer on Mitt vs Newt
The always-insightful Krauthammer on what is likely to be the final GOP primary match-up: Romney vs Gingrich. He examines both of their serious flaws and strengths (though he sounds a bit more sympathetic to Romney), and ultimately concludes that we’d have been better off with Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan or Chris Christie (and incidentally, I couldn’t agree more). Cue the trombone.
2. I Rarely Agree With David Brooks, But….
He actually gets it almost entirely right (except for his assertion that the American bank bailouts were necessary) on the global debt crisis and specfically the crumbling of the Eurozone. It’s Atlas Shrugged come to pass in Europe right now, with the irresponsible leaches demanding their bailouts from the industrious, financially responsible (comparatively speaking) Germans.
3. East Asia Gets Credit For Inventing Dogs
Genetic evidence concludes that dogs originated in eastern Asia, meaning that the indigenous cultures in the region south of the Yangtze River get the credit for being the first humans to successfully domesticate the grey wolf. So I guess chalk up one more awesome thing we owe to the Chinese…
4. New Study Challenges Apocalyptic Climate Change Scenarios
Regardless of whether this study’s assertion that the climate is far less sensitive than the IPCC says it is, I am always struck by what to me seems the futility of attempting to replicate all of the conditions contributing to the earth’s climate in these climate models. You read about these scientists jockeying the models until they spit out the results they would expect for certain climatic epochs like the last Glacial Maximum, then using that model to generate results for our modern climate. Perhaps I’m missing something but that seems incredibly sloppy and largely unreliable.
The always-insightful Krauthammer on what is likely to be the final GOP primary match-up: Romney vs Gingrich. He examines both of their serious flaws and strengths (though he sounds a bit more sympathetic to Romney), and ultimately concludes that we’d have been better off with Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan or Chris Christie (and incidentally, I couldn’t agree more). Cue the trombone.
2. I Rarely Agree With David Brooks, But….
He actually gets it almost entirely right (except for his assertion that the American bank bailouts were necessary) on the global debt crisis and specfically the crumbling of the Eurozone. It’s Atlas Shrugged come to pass in Europe right now, with the irresponsible leaches demanding their bailouts from the industrious, financially responsible (comparatively speaking) Germans.
3. East Asia Gets Credit For Inventing Dogs
Genetic evidence concludes that dogs originated in eastern Asia, meaning that the indigenous cultures in the region south of the Yangtze River get the credit for being the first humans to successfully domesticate the grey wolf. So I guess chalk up one more awesome thing we owe to the Chinese…
4. New Study Challenges Apocalyptic Climate Change Scenarios
Regardless of whether this study’s assertion that the climate is far less sensitive than the IPCC says it is, I am always struck by what to me seems the futility of attempting to replicate all of the conditions contributing to the earth’s climate in these climate models. You read about these scientists jockeying the models until they spit out the results they would expect for certain climatic epochs like the last Glacial Maximum, then using that model to generate results for our modern climate. Perhaps I’m missing something but that seems incredibly sloppy and largely unreliable.
1.12.11
Early Edition
1. Early & Overwhelming Victory For Islamists In Egypt
After this week’s vote by a third of Egypt’s provinces for parliamentary seats, Islamists, composed primarily of the Muslim Brotherhood, currently claim a 65% share of the legislative body. More voting will take place up until January but, as this article reports, most of the more liberal provinces voted in this round, and future votes are expected to deliver even more seats to Islamist candidates. It will be interesting to see how the military “caretaker” government handles this, and how long this democratic system can last with all of the highly explosive elements at play.
2. Vote Deng Xiaoping In 2012 (Or Else!)
Another Friedman-esque lament that the United States languishes under the repressive yoke of representative, constitutional democracy and free markets while China basks in the liberating glow of central planning and flagrant violation of international law. What all of these clowns seem to disregard is that, as a developing nation, China’s current trajectory, while impressive now, is unsustainable in the long term and will eventually reach a state of inertia. The only caveat to that is if China can make a peaceful transition to a parliamentary or representative system with a coda of civil rights that are effectively enforced. If that should happen, the inevitable stagnation and subsequent social upheaval encountered by all central planning states when they grow too rapidly may be avoided.
3. Throwing Our Own Feces: The Key To Human Evolution?
Scientists studying chimpanzees hypothesize that an environment that selected for accurate throwing, a left-brain activity that requires relatively complicated cognition, may have paved the way for the development of speech in our ancestors. My favorite part of this article is the following quote from one of the scientists conducting the study: “Why did these chimps learn to throw in a captive context? I’ve never in my life seen a chimp be given a banana for throwing s–t at someone. The reward is not something food-based. The reward is that they can control a person’s behavior. They get a pile of something to throw, and usually the person tries to run. The chimp learns, ‘If I can do this, I can have some control over the world outside my cage.’”
4. Condescension Toward Customers May Drive Higher Profits
This study demonstrates how, when reminded of their lower social status or disadvantage, people tend to offer more money for a service or item than they normally would. The lesson for businesses? Belittle your target market and be a condescending douchebag toward your customers.
5. And Still We Move Inexorably Toward Cyberwar
This is the first I’ve heard that the Obama administration considered but ultimately rejected the idea of launching a cyberattack on Libya’s air defenses, which I think was a good decision. Still, other nations show far less restraint and prudence and are likely to be the ones who touch off a major war with a crippling initial cyberattack.
After this week’s vote by a third of Egypt’s provinces for parliamentary seats, Islamists, composed primarily of the Muslim Brotherhood, currently claim a 65% share of the legislative body. More voting will take place up until January but, as this article reports, most of the more liberal provinces voted in this round, and future votes are expected to deliver even more seats to Islamist candidates. It will be interesting to see how the military “caretaker” government handles this, and how long this democratic system can last with all of the highly explosive elements at play.
2. Vote Deng Xiaoping In 2012 (Or Else!)
Another Friedman-esque lament that the United States languishes under the repressive yoke of representative, constitutional democracy and free markets while China basks in the liberating glow of central planning and flagrant violation of international law. What all of these clowns seem to disregard is that, as a developing nation, China’s current trajectory, while impressive now, is unsustainable in the long term and will eventually reach a state of inertia. The only caveat to that is if China can make a peaceful transition to a parliamentary or representative system with a coda of civil rights that are effectively enforced. If that should happen, the inevitable stagnation and subsequent social upheaval encountered by all central planning states when they grow too rapidly may be avoided.
3. Throwing Our Own Feces: The Key To Human Evolution?
Scientists studying chimpanzees hypothesize that an environment that selected for accurate throwing, a left-brain activity that requires relatively complicated cognition, may have paved the way for the development of speech in our ancestors. My favorite part of this article is the following quote from one of the scientists conducting the study: “Why did these chimps learn to throw in a captive context? I’ve never in my life seen a chimp be given a banana for throwing s–t at someone. The reward is not something food-based. The reward is that they can control a person’s behavior. They get a pile of something to throw, and usually the person tries to run. The chimp learns, ‘If I can do this, I can have some control over the world outside my cage.’”
4. Condescension Toward Customers May Drive Higher Profits
This study demonstrates how, when reminded of their lower social status or disadvantage, people tend to offer more money for a service or item than they normally would. The lesson for businesses? Belittle your target market and be a condescending douchebag toward your customers.
5. And Still We Move Inexorably Toward Cyberwar
This is the first I’ve heard that the Obama administration considered but ultimately rejected the idea of launching a cyberattack on Libya’s air defenses, which I think was a good decision. Still, other nations show far less restraint and prudence and are likely to be the ones who touch off a major war with a crippling initial cyberattack.
30.11.11
Early Edition
1. The Most Useless Robot Ever
Assuming a robot paper weight hasn’t been invented yet, this, I think, currently tops the charts as the most useless robot ever designed. It’s comical means of locomotion should be set to kazoo music.
2. Atheists: Worse Than Hitler?
Interesting article about a study exposing the biases of most Americans against atheists as unworthy of trust. A study showed that people were far more likely to assume an individual performing relatively immoral acts was an atheist (with “rapist” being a close second) than a Muslim or a Christian.
3. Religious Right Wandering In The Wilderness
Speaking of prejudicial and irrational evangelicals, one of the upsides of the weak GOP field seems to be that the religious right is left without a clear champion (perhaps I should say “viable champion,” since Santorum really checks all the boxes for Christian fundamentalists), though all of the candidates have had their moments of shameless pandering.
4. The World of Tomorrow
Some pie-in-the-sky predictions of the technologies of the future. Some are more realistic than others.
5. Knowledge (Or Rather Possession of Data) Is Power
Yet more reason to believe the future of our species lies in first developing AI that knows literally everything (in terms of raw data) and can reliably recognize patterns and make accurate predictions of future events (the Palantir program is a nascent version of this superbrain) and then joining ourselves to it. Over the extreme long term it’s easy to imagine that we’d have less and less use for our physical bodies, to the point that we may discard them altogether.
Assuming a robot paper weight hasn’t been invented yet, this, I think, currently tops the charts as the most useless robot ever designed. It’s comical means of locomotion should be set to kazoo music.
2. Atheists: Worse Than Hitler?
Interesting article about a study exposing the biases of most Americans against atheists as unworthy of trust. A study showed that people were far more likely to assume an individual performing relatively immoral acts was an atheist (with “rapist” being a close second) than a Muslim or a Christian.
3. Religious Right Wandering In The Wilderness
Speaking of prejudicial and irrational evangelicals, one of the upsides of the weak GOP field seems to be that the religious right is left without a clear champion (perhaps I should say “viable champion,” since Santorum really checks all the boxes for Christian fundamentalists), though all of the candidates have had their moments of shameless pandering.
4. The World of Tomorrow
Some pie-in-the-sky predictions of the technologies of the future. Some are more realistic than others.
5. Knowledge (Or Rather Possession of Data) Is Power
Yet more reason to believe the future of our species lies in first developing AI that knows literally everything (in terms of raw data) and can reliably recognize patterns and make accurate predictions of future events (the Palantir program is a nascent version of this superbrain) and then joining ourselves to it. Over the extreme long term it’s easy to imagine that we’d have less and less use for our physical bodies, to the point that we may discard them altogether.
21.11.11
Early Edition
1. How China Can Defeat America
Very interesting article that posits China can overtake the United States by focusing on cracking down on political graft at home and incubating a stronger Confucian model of morality that eliminates the vestigial and pervasive human rights abuses the current government continues to sanction. Author asserts that if China can get a firm grasp on a moral highground by getting its own house in order, it can begin credibly projecting power and cutting into American alliances with far greater ease. While he also puts forward that China’s military is less experienced, well-organized and technologically advanced, he doesn’t really touch the question of cyberwarfare, in which it seems China has both a willingness and a sophistocation to carry out to their strategic advance (ie – eliminating all of those American advantages and levelling the playing field). What I find kind of funny about this is that it’s a suggestion that China should basically follow the American model, which has resulted, as we see in the present-day, with eventual decline and contraction. Any rising power that seeks hegemony should, before it embarks on that fateful journey, do some soul-searching and decide whether they’d be better off avoiding the role of top dog.
2. The Limits of Altriusm/Ethics/Empathy in Human Behavior
This article touches on some familiar old studies about what human beings are capable of doing to one another as long as they can diffuse accountability onto others (groupthink), or claim they were given orders, etc, etc. It also discusses a recent study about how individuals who make ethical choices that challenge the group are frequently ostracized by the conformist group, even when the individual’s ethical choices are validated, simply because they did not conform.
3. More on Gingrich, And How He Could Win
Consider the source (The Weekly Standard) and the author (Fred Barnes), but this is a somewhat plausible argument for how Gingrich could, against heavy odds, secure the GOP nomination over Romney and go on to beat Obama. If the suggestions that Newt has gotten control of his tongue and developed the discipline to avoid his frequent self-destructions are true (I somewhat doubt it), then great. But even finishing out the primary and general election season with a perfect performance won’t eliminate some of his more damning past misstatements that make easy fodder for the Democrats (his indirect Paul Ryan bashing, for instance, would make a great soundbyte on how even Gingrich, before it became politically convenient, admitted the right wing had overreached in the GOP, etc). He does demonstrate what other conservative candidates miss: that challenging the premise of the questions you are asked can be a winning strategy, and provides ample opportunity to teach conservatism via soundbyte to a nationwide television audience.
4. Hitchens On American Exceptionalism
Hitchens examines the accidents of history that led to the rise of the United States and the fortunes of its predecessors, and bemoans the focus on the amorphous, quasi-spiritual concept of American exceptionalism as a litmus test for conservatives.
Very interesting article that posits China can overtake the United States by focusing on cracking down on political graft at home and incubating a stronger Confucian model of morality that eliminates the vestigial and pervasive human rights abuses the current government continues to sanction. Author asserts that if China can get a firm grasp on a moral highground by getting its own house in order, it can begin credibly projecting power and cutting into American alliances with far greater ease. While he also puts forward that China’s military is less experienced, well-organized and technologically advanced, he doesn’t really touch the question of cyberwarfare, in which it seems China has both a willingness and a sophistocation to carry out to their strategic advance (ie – eliminating all of those American advantages and levelling the playing field). What I find kind of funny about this is that it’s a suggestion that China should basically follow the American model, which has resulted, as we see in the present-day, with eventual decline and contraction. Any rising power that seeks hegemony should, before it embarks on that fateful journey, do some soul-searching and decide whether they’d be better off avoiding the role of top dog.
2. The Limits of Altriusm/Ethics/Empathy in Human Behavior
This article touches on some familiar old studies about what human beings are capable of doing to one another as long as they can diffuse accountability onto others (groupthink), or claim they were given orders, etc, etc. It also discusses a recent study about how individuals who make ethical choices that challenge the group are frequently ostracized by the conformist group, even when the individual’s ethical choices are validated, simply because they did not conform.
3. More on Gingrich, And How He Could Win
Consider the source (The Weekly Standard) and the author (Fred Barnes), but this is a somewhat plausible argument for how Gingrich could, against heavy odds, secure the GOP nomination over Romney and go on to beat Obama. If the suggestions that Newt has gotten control of his tongue and developed the discipline to avoid his frequent self-destructions are true (I somewhat doubt it), then great. But even finishing out the primary and general election season with a perfect performance won’t eliminate some of his more damning past misstatements that make easy fodder for the Democrats (his indirect Paul Ryan bashing, for instance, would make a great soundbyte on how even Gingrich, before it became politically convenient, admitted the right wing had overreached in the GOP, etc). He does demonstrate what other conservative candidates miss: that challenging the premise of the questions you are asked can be a winning strategy, and provides ample opportunity to teach conservatism via soundbyte to a nationwide television audience.
4. Hitchens On American Exceptionalism
Hitchens examines the accidents of history that led to the rise of the United States and the fortunes of its predecessors, and bemoans the focus on the amorphous, quasi-spiritual concept of American exceptionalism as a litmus test for conservatives.
15.11.11
Early Edition
1. Anxiety Over Gingrich
I’m not sure why Michael Tomasky is agonizing so much over the possibility of Gingrich being the GOP nominee. I’d think, to read his article, that the prospect would positively thrill him as a far leftist. While I agree Gingrich has some major obstacles to overcome to first get the nomination and then beat Obama, I think Tomasky’s wrong to assume the general public is ignorant of his personal shortcomings (eg - the fact that his current and third wife was once his former staffer and mistress) or political posturing. On the contrary, I think Gingrich’s late rise has a lot to do with the fact that people (like myself) have been very resistant to even look at him because of his unsavory personal misdeeds, his political flip-flops and his early campaign stumbles. Tomasky has a point that Gingrich has shown a propensity for gaffes, and that certainly is cause for concern among Republicans. But compared to the rest of the GOP field (and perhaps this is the most stinging indictment of just how weak a field it is) he almost looks like the safest bet outside of Romney. But the ultimate thrust of the article, that Romney is inevitable and everything that happens between now and his nomination is just the fun of the silly season, is likely accurate. Oh Mitch Daniels, why have you forsaken us?
2. Herman Cain Should Not Be President
OK, I’ll say it. Herman Cain has reached the point of absurdity. It’s just plain ridiculous for a man who wants to be president to still be this uninformed on major issues. He’s had plenty of time to learn this stuff. All he has to do is grab a copy of any major newspaper in the country on his way to his next campaign stop or, better yet, pull up the Googles (or have a staffer pull up the Googles) and learn it. Now before anyone rushes to offer some excuse or another, they need to remember that, prior to this campaign, the man was the host of a radio show whose central theme was political punditry. I mean he should have picked these things up in show prep at the very least. We’re in Rick Perry territory now, folks.
3. More Cyberattacks On Iran
Whether this is us or Israel, I say keep it up just so long as we can take whatever we dish out (that is to say, hopefully whoever is launching these viruses has the antivirus on hand).
I’m not sure why Michael Tomasky is agonizing so much over the possibility of Gingrich being the GOP nominee. I’d think, to read his article, that the prospect would positively thrill him as a far leftist. While I agree Gingrich has some major obstacles to overcome to first get the nomination and then beat Obama, I think Tomasky’s wrong to assume the general public is ignorant of his personal shortcomings (eg - the fact that his current and third wife was once his former staffer and mistress) or political posturing. On the contrary, I think Gingrich’s late rise has a lot to do with the fact that people (like myself) have been very resistant to even look at him because of his unsavory personal misdeeds, his political flip-flops and his early campaign stumbles. Tomasky has a point that Gingrich has shown a propensity for gaffes, and that certainly is cause for concern among Republicans. But compared to the rest of the GOP field (and perhaps this is the most stinging indictment of just how weak a field it is) he almost looks like the safest bet outside of Romney. But the ultimate thrust of the article, that Romney is inevitable and everything that happens between now and his nomination is just the fun of the silly season, is likely accurate. Oh Mitch Daniels, why have you forsaken us?
2. Herman Cain Should Not Be President
OK, I’ll say it. Herman Cain has reached the point of absurdity. It’s just plain ridiculous for a man who wants to be president to still be this uninformed on major issues. He’s had plenty of time to learn this stuff. All he has to do is grab a copy of any major newspaper in the country on his way to his next campaign stop or, better yet, pull up the Googles (or have a staffer pull up the Googles) and learn it. Now before anyone rushes to offer some excuse or another, they need to remember that, prior to this campaign, the man was the host of a radio show whose central theme was political punditry. I mean he should have picked these things up in show prep at the very least. We’re in Rick Perry territory now, folks.
3. More Cyberattacks On Iran
Whether this is us or Israel, I say keep it up just so long as we can take whatever we dish out (that is to say, hopefully whoever is launching these viruses has the antivirus on hand).
14.11.11
Late Edition
1. Congress Is Full of Criminals. No Seriously, It’s Literally Full of Criminals…
A bipartisan orgy of illegality in Congress is detailed by Peter Schwiezer that exposes rampant insider trading on the part of lawmakers who benefitted off of their direct involvement in Wall Street’s dealings. So I’ll ask the obvious question; if this is an example of both parties agreeing on something, should we really get all that excited when they agree on stuff? Speaking for me, anytime I hear about broad bipartisan support the alarm bells start going off that there’s a big stinking pile of money to be made by our public servants somewhere in the deal.
2. Latest GOP Polls
My predictions show signs of coming true. The latest GOP presidential primary polls show Cain slowly starting to fall and Gingrich rising in his place. The end-of-the week polls will tell the tale, but I can’t say that this is surprising. And honestly I don’t really know that the sexual harrassment scandals have had as much to do with Cain’s peak as his inability to perform like a front-runner in media appearances and the last few debates. Now we’ll see if the next anti-Romney has any staying (read: fundraising) power…
3. "We’ve" Been Lazy
President Obama carefully explains how we’ve been lazy about attracting foreign business in this country, which makes a lot of sense because…. wait, what? Did he seriously say that? Who is “we”? Does he mean American businesses? No, no, that doesn’t make any sense. It would make more sense if he was talking about government, since they’re responsible for ensuring a friendly regulatory and business climate for foreign investment. So is he saying that he’s been lazy about it? Like, the “royal we”? I don’t know. But if he’s not just talking out of his ass and is serious about attracting business to the US he might consider LOWERING THE CORPORATE INCOME TAX RATE.
4. Occupy Your Mom
Occupy Oakland camp is officially busted up by the ultra-liberal mayor after even she couldn’t deny the fact that it had become “a place where we had repeated violence and this week a murder” (my emphasis added).
A bipartisan orgy of illegality in Congress is detailed by Peter Schwiezer that exposes rampant insider trading on the part of lawmakers who benefitted off of their direct involvement in Wall Street’s dealings. So I’ll ask the obvious question; if this is an example of both parties agreeing on something, should we really get all that excited when they agree on stuff? Speaking for me, anytime I hear about broad bipartisan support the alarm bells start going off that there’s a big stinking pile of money to be made by our public servants somewhere in the deal.
2. Latest GOP Polls
My predictions show signs of coming true. The latest GOP presidential primary polls show Cain slowly starting to fall and Gingrich rising in his place. The end-of-the week polls will tell the tale, but I can’t say that this is surprising. And honestly I don’t really know that the sexual harrassment scandals have had as much to do with Cain’s peak as his inability to perform like a front-runner in media appearances and the last few debates. Now we’ll see if the next anti-Romney has any staying (read: fundraising) power…
3. "We’ve" Been Lazy
President Obama carefully explains how we’ve been lazy about attracting foreign business in this country, which makes a lot of sense because…. wait, what? Did he seriously say that? Who is “we”? Does he mean American businesses? No, no, that doesn’t make any sense. It would make more sense if he was talking about government, since they’re responsible for ensuring a friendly regulatory and business climate for foreign investment. So is he saying that he’s been lazy about it? Like, the “royal we”? I don’t know. But if he’s not just talking out of his ass and is serious about attracting business to the US he might consider LOWERING THE CORPORATE INCOME TAX RATE.
4. Occupy Your Mom
Occupy Oakland camp is officially busted up by the ultra-liberal mayor after even she couldn’t deny the fact that it had become “a place where we had repeated violence and this week a murder” (my emphasis added).
9.11.11
Early Edition
1. Ohio Election Results: Collective Bargaining Rights Preserved, ObamaCare Rejected
The coverage of the results of yesterday’s special election in Ohio has focused almost exclusively on the failure of Issue 2, which sought to uphold Senate Bill 5’s restriction of collective bargaining rights for state employees. The current tally has Issue 2 being rejected by 61%, and the media coverage seems to suggest that this may somehow have an impact on the 2012 presidential elections. I think the issue far more likely to weigh heavily on presidential prospects in 2012 is Issue 3, which proposed to enact an amendment to the Ohio constitution that would opt it out of the federal health care reform law, known colloquially as “ObamaCare”, and more specifically a health care mandate system. The amendment is currently passing by a wide margin of 66%, with every county voting in favor except Lucas County, where it is failing by a less than one thousand vote margin.
2. The Gingrich Window
A propos, the Wall Street Journal editorial page comes out with an echo of my observations from yesterday’s Late Edition regarding the latest GOP primary polls. Gingrich does have an opportunity to cash in on his third place position should Cain implode (though the author’s derisive dismissal of Cain in light of the specific but suspiciously template-style accusations made by Bialek are a bit premature, I have a feeling) and one or more of the inevitable losers drop out sooner rather than later. What’s more, Rick Perry’s decision to not participate in further debates (which will without doubt not do anything to stop his plummeting poll numbers, though it may slow the plunge), starting with tonight’s, does remove some clutter that will allow Gingrich, who will participate, to fill at least a small vaccuum and continue to push his poll numbers up. We shall see.
3. If Iran Goes Nuclear
The inevitable question, with the release of the IAEA report suggesting that Iran is closer than ever to obtaining nuclear weapons, of what President Obama and his sometimes ally Prime Minister Netanyahu will do should they get the bomb. There’s no easy answer, and if we start a full-scale war with Iran to prevent them from obtaining weapons we’re not at all sure that they’ll use for anything but negotiation and prestige I think we’ll look back at the price as having been far too high. On the other hand, the idea of having yet another fundamentalist Islamic state that we know is tied directly to terrorist proxies and killing Americans with their finger on the nuclear trigger presents far too much risk to tolerate. I would tentatively suggest we continue the sabotage operations and try as hard as possible to get their first bomb to go off accidentally in whatever hangar or bunker it’s stashed in. That will embarrass them, destabilize their government even further, and invite international action to contain the disaster within their borders.
The coverage of the results of yesterday’s special election in Ohio has focused almost exclusively on the failure of Issue 2, which sought to uphold Senate Bill 5’s restriction of collective bargaining rights for state employees. The current tally has Issue 2 being rejected by 61%, and the media coverage seems to suggest that this may somehow have an impact on the 2012 presidential elections. I think the issue far more likely to weigh heavily on presidential prospects in 2012 is Issue 3, which proposed to enact an amendment to the Ohio constitution that would opt it out of the federal health care reform law, known colloquially as “ObamaCare”, and more specifically a health care mandate system. The amendment is currently passing by a wide margin of 66%, with every county voting in favor except Lucas County, where it is failing by a less than one thousand vote margin.
2. The Gingrich Window
A propos, the Wall Street Journal editorial page comes out with an echo of my observations from yesterday’s Late Edition regarding the latest GOP primary polls. Gingrich does have an opportunity to cash in on his third place position should Cain implode (though the author’s derisive dismissal of Cain in light of the specific but suspiciously template-style accusations made by Bialek are a bit premature, I have a feeling) and one or more of the inevitable losers drop out sooner rather than later. What’s more, Rick Perry’s decision to not participate in further debates (which will without doubt not do anything to stop his plummeting poll numbers, though it may slow the plunge), starting with tonight’s, does remove some clutter that will allow Gingrich, who will participate, to fill at least a small vaccuum and continue to push his poll numbers up. We shall see.
3. If Iran Goes Nuclear
The inevitable question, with the release of the IAEA report suggesting that Iran is closer than ever to obtaining nuclear weapons, of what President Obama and his sometimes ally Prime Minister Netanyahu will do should they get the bomb. There’s no easy answer, and if we start a full-scale war with Iran to prevent them from obtaining weapons we’re not at all sure that they’ll use for anything but negotiation and prestige I think we’ll look back at the price as having been far too high. On the other hand, the idea of having yet another fundamentalist Islamic state that we know is tied directly to terrorist proxies and killing Americans with their finger on the nuclear trigger presents far too much risk to tolerate. I would tentatively suggest we continue the sabotage operations and try as hard as possible to get their first bomb to go off accidentally in whatever hangar or bunker it’s stashed in. That will embarrass them, destabilize their government even further, and invite international action to contain the disaster within their borders.
8.11.11
Late Edition
1. Latest GOP Primary Polls
I see a few things in these polls. One, Cain, despite everything, seems to have some spectacular staying power. If the next set of polls (which will cover the revelations of this week and the additional revelations pertaining sexual harassment allegations certain to come) shows him where he is today then it will be quite something. Another thing I see is just how pathetically quick Perry shot up and then immediately down in the polls as a direct result of people seeing him attempt to articulate what he calls his ideas. Quite frankly I think he, Bachmann, Santorum and probably Hunstman too need to bow out and free their supporters up to counteract the Romney bloc. The third thing apparent here is that Gingrich has a real chance, should Cain falter and some of the above-mentioned clingers-on drop out, to get the "Not Romney" vote if his performance remains consistent, which could make him a real contender for the nomination, despite all odds (and his salacious personal character). And finally, Ron Paul has polled consistently at between about 8 and 11 percent throughout the primary season, placing anywhere from second place to fifth place, which leads one to wonder what kind of a bump he might see from the inevitable dropping out of other candidates.
2. How Dogs Evolved From Wolves
Being fascinated as I am by the history between dogs and humans that originated between wolves and early man, I found this article painted a vivid mental picture of just how cool that story is.
3. Clinton Okay With Oligarchy
Scarborough secures his place as a total jackass by singing the praises of unlimited presidential terms. Shockingly, Bill Clinton joins the chorus. Scarborough, showing a staggering ignorance, compares apples to oranges when he points to Britain's parliamentary system allowing Churchill to have served his repeated, but interrupted, terms. There's a very good reason we passed the 22nd Amendment, and no, it wasn't just that Republicans were jealous of FDR (the amendment wasn't proposed until 1947, by the way, long after Roosevelt's death), but it was a recognition of the possibility of de facto dictatorship and oligarchy that is represented by a single person's long occupation, interrupted or not (Putin, anyone?), of the chief executive office. This is really a parade of idiocy, I'm quite stunned.
I see a few things in these polls. One, Cain, despite everything, seems to have some spectacular staying power. If the next set of polls (which will cover the revelations of this week and the additional revelations pertaining sexual harassment allegations certain to come) shows him where he is today then it will be quite something. Another thing I see is just how pathetically quick Perry shot up and then immediately down in the polls as a direct result of people seeing him attempt to articulate what he calls his ideas. Quite frankly I think he, Bachmann, Santorum and probably Hunstman too need to bow out and free their supporters up to counteract the Romney bloc. The third thing apparent here is that Gingrich has a real chance, should Cain falter and some of the above-mentioned clingers-on drop out, to get the "Not Romney" vote if his performance remains consistent, which could make him a real contender for the nomination, despite all odds (and his salacious personal character). And finally, Ron Paul has polled consistently at between about 8 and 11 percent throughout the primary season, placing anywhere from second place to fifth place, which leads one to wonder what kind of a bump he might see from the inevitable dropping out of other candidates.
2. How Dogs Evolved From Wolves
Being fascinated as I am by the history between dogs and humans that originated between wolves and early man, I found this article painted a vivid mental picture of just how cool that story is.
3. Clinton Okay With Oligarchy
Scarborough secures his place as a total jackass by singing the praises of unlimited presidential terms. Shockingly, Bill Clinton joins the chorus. Scarborough, showing a staggering ignorance, compares apples to oranges when he points to Britain's parliamentary system allowing Churchill to have served his repeated, but interrupted, terms. There's a very good reason we passed the 22nd Amendment, and no, it wasn't just that Republicans were jealous of FDR (the amendment wasn't proposed until 1947, by the way, long after Roosevelt's death), but it was a recognition of the possibility of de facto dictatorship and oligarchy that is represented by a single person's long occupation, interrupted or not (Putin, anyone?), of the chief executive office. This is really a parade of idiocy, I'm quite stunned.
Early Edition
1. GPS Warrants
Seriously, this made it all the way to the Supreme Court? Is this not an easy answer? Of course the police shouldn’t be allowed to attach a GPS device to your vehicle (private property) without a warrant! It doesn’t matter whether the car is on a public road, for crying out loud! Even under the current law police are only allowed to search your vehicle under a specific set of circumstances without a warrant or consent, and that is a one-time search and not a days- or even months-long surveillance operation. Good lord.
2. Never Trust a Microphone
Every politician gets caught being honest when a mic is accidentally left on at some point in their careers. Apparently Presidents Obama and Sarkozy had their moment yesterday when a private conversation between the two leaders was overhead by the media after their mics were left on. Sarkozy was reportedly overheard to call Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a “liar” and say that he “can’t stand” him, to which Obama replied, “You’re fed up with him? I have to deal with him every day!” Cue the trombone: wah waaaaaaah.
3. Death Row Inmate Recieves Stay of Execution For DNA Testing
Yet another case of a man literally within minutes of being killed by the state without the benefit of DNA evidence. Fortunately for him the state of Texas granted him a temporary stay until DNA testing that may prove his innocence can be conducted.
4. Scientists Seek to Create Cellular “Operating System”
I don’t understand the mechanics of this exactly, but if this endeavor proves successful it sounds like synthetic biology would enter an “industrial era” in which mass production of programmable cells and organisms could bring the field into the mainstream and, in all likelihood, a more commercial realm.
5. ASIMO Is Back (without the stairs…)!
As much as I view robots as largely impractical curiosities in their current forms (and in some cases nothing more than grant-funded fulfillments of deviant Japanese masochistic fantasies), I do hold out hope that this private and military R&D will continue without discouragement until they at least manage to refine the current powersuit prototypes into fully functional battle-mechs. I mean anytime I see a robot the first question I literally always ask is "Yes, but have you thought about mounting miniguns, mortars or maybe even a bank off hellfire missiles on it?"
6. Yup, Cyberwar Will Destroy Us All
Dire assessment from America’s top national and cybersecurity experts saying America is woefully unprepared to protect its infrastructure from cyberattack.
Seriously, this made it all the way to the Supreme Court? Is this not an easy answer? Of course the police shouldn’t be allowed to attach a GPS device to your vehicle (private property) without a warrant! It doesn’t matter whether the car is on a public road, for crying out loud! Even under the current law police are only allowed to search your vehicle under a specific set of circumstances without a warrant or consent, and that is a one-time search and not a days- or even months-long surveillance operation. Good lord.
2. Never Trust a Microphone
Every politician gets caught being honest when a mic is accidentally left on at some point in their careers. Apparently Presidents Obama and Sarkozy had their moment yesterday when a private conversation between the two leaders was overhead by the media after their mics were left on. Sarkozy was reportedly overheard to call Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a “liar” and say that he “can’t stand” him, to which Obama replied, “You’re fed up with him? I have to deal with him every day!” Cue the trombone: wah waaaaaaah.
3. Death Row Inmate Recieves Stay of Execution For DNA Testing
Yet another case of a man literally within minutes of being killed by the state without the benefit of DNA evidence. Fortunately for him the state of Texas granted him a temporary stay until DNA testing that may prove his innocence can be conducted.
4. Scientists Seek to Create Cellular “Operating System”
I don’t understand the mechanics of this exactly, but if this endeavor proves successful it sounds like synthetic biology would enter an “industrial era” in which mass production of programmable cells and organisms could bring the field into the mainstream and, in all likelihood, a more commercial realm.
5. ASIMO Is Back (without the stairs…)!
As much as I view robots as largely impractical curiosities in their current forms (and in some cases nothing more than grant-funded fulfillments of deviant Japanese masochistic fantasies), I do hold out hope that this private and military R&D will continue without discouragement until they at least manage to refine the current powersuit prototypes into fully functional battle-mechs. I mean anytime I see a robot the first question I literally always ask is "Yes, but have you thought about mounting miniguns, mortars or maybe even a bank off hellfire missiles on it?"
6. Yup, Cyberwar Will Destroy Us All
Dire assessment from America’s top national and cybersecurity experts saying America is woefully unprepared to protect its infrastructure from cyberattack.
7.11.11
Early Edition
1. Rise of the (Office) Machines
A piece from the Economist that gives voice to murmured discussions I have heard in various circles about how the Great Recession has spurred businesses to replace employees with software for the sake of cost and efficiency, and that those jobs are unlikely to return if the technology proves in the long term to be an improvement over flesh and blood white collar drones. The article cites a figure of roughly 50 million jobs (which equates to about 40% of all employment) that could reasonably be performed by computer software. The white collar software is certainly here to stay, and the market will either have to self-correct by reallocating those replaced into other areas or we will see a further, steady decline in US birth rates and population growth. We'll also have to figure out how to configure these white-collar software programs to experience a lack of fulfillment, crushing regret, and compulsive sycophancy.
2. Cop Cameras
I don’t have a problem with cops being fitted with cameras so long as a couple of very firm rules apply. The first, cops have to turn the cameras off when they enter a private residence, place of business or other private property, unless in the case of hot pursuit when turning the camera off is not reasonable due to the intensity of a confrontation or the officer’s personal safety. Any video taken in any of these circumstances would be inadmissible evidence. The second, police videos taken with these cameras absolutely must be made available to defendants and plaintiffs in both criminal and civil cases.
3. Caution on Cain
This article echoes a lot of my major concerns about Herman Cain as a general election candidate (apart from the “character” argument that says just because vague sexual harrassment charges have been levelled against him by women likely sympathetic to Obama that he is a weaker candidate on account). His clear ignorance on foreign policy and his major fumbles on such fundamental issues as abortion are disconcerting enough, but his repeated willingness to “fake it” through these issues during interviews rather than either admit he isn’t up to speed on them from the outset or more expertly dodging them is cause for additional concern. And while I’m no fan of career politicians, I think in the case of the presidency, given the constitutional responsibilities apportioned to the office, it’s pretty important we have someone with at least some public office experience, preferably in an executive capacity. That having been said, I would still vote for Herman Cain over Barack Obama any day of the week (though I’m getting pretty sick and tired of having to hold my nose when I cast my ballot every four years).
4. North Carolina Eugenics Victims
A bit of a haunting history lesson about what happens when governments, state or federal, are given license to make decisions regarding your health or your person, with or without your consent. While liberals rightly decry this dark chapter in history for its state-sanctioned racism, I imagine they don't get too outraged over the concept that government may claim a "public interest" can be served by a measure of control over your body (in this case, contemporary concepts of racial purity that of course are ludicrous to modern society), considering they overwhelmingly support the current delivery vehicle that finds a vested "public interest" in reduced health care costs warrants such state purview.
A piece from the Economist that gives voice to murmured discussions I have heard in various circles about how the Great Recession has spurred businesses to replace employees with software for the sake of cost and efficiency, and that those jobs are unlikely to return if the technology proves in the long term to be an improvement over flesh and blood white collar drones. The article cites a figure of roughly 50 million jobs (which equates to about 40% of all employment) that could reasonably be performed by computer software. The white collar software is certainly here to stay, and the market will either have to self-correct by reallocating those replaced into other areas or we will see a further, steady decline in US birth rates and population growth. We'll also have to figure out how to configure these white-collar software programs to experience a lack of fulfillment, crushing regret, and compulsive sycophancy.
2. Cop Cameras
I don’t have a problem with cops being fitted with cameras so long as a couple of very firm rules apply. The first, cops have to turn the cameras off when they enter a private residence, place of business or other private property, unless in the case of hot pursuit when turning the camera off is not reasonable due to the intensity of a confrontation or the officer’s personal safety. Any video taken in any of these circumstances would be inadmissible evidence. The second, police videos taken with these cameras absolutely must be made available to defendants and plaintiffs in both criminal and civil cases.
3. Caution on Cain
This article echoes a lot of my major concerns about Herman Cain as a general election candidate (apart from the “character” argument that says just because vague sexual harrassment charges have been levelled against him by women likely sympathetic to Obama that he is a weaker candidate on account). His clear ignorance on foreign policy and his major fumbles on such fundamental issues as abortion are disconcerting enough, but his repeated willingness to “fake it” through these issues during interviews rather than either admit he isn’t up to speed on them from the outset or more expertly dodging them is cause for additional concern. And while I’m no fan of career politicians, I think in the case of the presidency, given the constitutional responsibilities apportioned to the office, it’s pretty important we have someone with at least some public office experience, preferably in an executive capacity. That having been said, I would still vote for Herman Cain over Barack Obama any day of the week (though I’m getting pretty sick and tired of having to hold my nose when I cast my ballot every four years).
4. North Carolina Eugenics Victims
A bit of a haunting history lesson about what happens when governments, state or federal, are given license to make decisions regarding your health or your person, with or without your consent. While liberals rightly decry this dark chapter in history for its state-sanctioned racism, I imagine they don't get too outraged over the concept that government may claim a "public interest" can be served by a measure of control over your body (in this case, contemporary concepts of racial purity that of course are ludicrous to modern society), considering they overwhelmingly support the current delivery vehicle that finds a vested "public interest" in reduced health care costs warrants such state purview.
3.11.11
Early Edition
1. This Wasn't In The Coloring Book....
Occupy Oakland becomes a violent, mindless mob seeking to create more jobs, close the income gap and end corporate cronyism by shutting down the nation's fifth largest shipping port and engaging in street fights with the police.
2. Scientists Create Molecular Computer That Resembles Human Brain Function
I really have no clue what this means, but it doesn't look to have any immediate practical effects. But it appears to be one more small step in the long march toward the potential birth of artificial humans.
3. A Cain Supporter Is Worrried
This piece from the American Spectator raises most of the concerns I've had about Cain not being ready for primetime no matter how much his supporters may wish he was. The current allegations against him of sexual misconduct, strangely becoming larger everyday (where were the folks claiming knowledge of behavior that could "end his campaign" when he first began to rise in the polls.... or declare his candidacy for president?) have just piled more upon him.
Occupy Oakland becomes a violent, mindless mob seeking to create more jobs, close the income gap and end corporate cronyism by shutting down the nation's fifth largest shipping port and engaging in street fights with the police.
2. Scientists Create Molecular Computer That Resembles Human Brain Function
I really have no clue what this means, but it doesn't look to have any immediate practical effects. But it appears to be one more small step in the long march toward the potential birth of artificial humans.
3. A Cain Supporter Is Worrried
This piece from the American Spectator raises most of the concerns I've had about Cain not being ready for primetime no matter how much his supporters may wish he was. The current allegations against him of sexual misconduct, strangely becoming larger everyday (where were the folks claiming knowledge of behavior that could "end his campaign" when he first began to rise in the polls.... or declare his candidacy for president?) have just piled more upon him.
2.11.11
Early Edition
1. Occupy Wall Street Officially Jumps the Shark
Behold, the definition of irony: Occupy Wall Street has released an adult coloring book, for sale on Amazon, which features the famously anti-capitalist Thomas Edison and Steve Jobs on the cover. And someone, ostensibly from the movement, has applied to trademark the term "Occupy Wall Street." I'm starting to think this whole thing is some enormously clever joke being played on rabid leftists by subversive conservatives. Oh.... but the pervasive rape and assault kind of makes it not funny.
2. Prophet Muhammad Needs Uptight Dumbasses with Molotov Cocktails to Protect Him From Free Speech
A French newspaper that invited Muhammad to be a guest editor and critizes Sharia Law had its office firebombed and its website hacked in retaliation. Who wants to worship a creepy, humorless teetotal that forbids you from drawing him and has to rely on mooncalves with molotov cocktails to keep him safe from his one weakness: criticism.
3. More Reasons To Be Afraid of Cyberwar
Fears arising now that what was likely a US government-made cyberweapon deployed against the Iranian nuclear program could be turned back on us and used to bring down our entire infrastructure. I'm becoming more and more convinced that the next major war will start cyber, obliterate the belligerents' networks, defense and power grids, and then devolve into a somewhat more sophistocated version of early 20th century trench warfare. There is much to fear, my friends, much to fear indeed.
Behold, the definition of irony: Occupy Wall Street has released an adult coloring book, for sale on Amazon, which features the famously anti-capitalist Thomas Edison and Steve Jobs on the cover. And someone, ostensibly from the movement, has applied to trademark the term "Occupy Wall Street." I'm starting to think this whole thing is some enormously clever joke being played on rabid leftists by subversive conservatives. Oh.... but the pervasive rape and assault kind of makes it not funny.
2. Prophet Muhammad Needs Uptight Dumbasses with Molotov Cocktails to Protect Him From Free Speech
A French newspaper that invited Muhammad to be a guest editor and critizes Sharia Law had its office firebombed and its website hacked in retaliation. Who wants to worship a creepy, humorless teetotal that forbids you from drawing him and has to rely on mooncalves with molotov cocktails to keep him safe from his one weakness: criticism.
3. More Reasons To Be Afraid of Cyberwar
Fears arising now that what was likely a US government-made cyberweapon deployed against the Iranian nuclear program could be turned back on us and used to bring down our entire infrastructure. I'm becoming more and more convinced that the next major war will start cyber, obliterate the belligerents' networks, defense and power grids, and then devolve into a somewhat more sophistocated version of early 20th century trench warfare. There is much to fear, my friends, much to fear indeed.
1.11.11
Early Edition
1. More on Free Will & The Human Brain
A piece from the New York Times on neuroscientist Dr. Michael Gazzaniga and his studies on brain function, free will and the applications of neuroscience to society and our legal system. His new book, "Who's In Charge: Free Will and the Science of the Brain," may be an excellent resource for the ongoing debate on free will amongst us.
2. Yet Another Way the World Might End
This from the Atlantic, a bit hysterical but looks at the ways in which misunderstandings between the US and China could lead to nuclear war (basically a retread of any number of articles one might have read circa 1969). I'm actually surprised this article didn't discuss the far more plausible cyberwar situation that could lead to tactical nuclear strikes or accidental launch.
3. Listen, I'm a Journalist. Don't Ask Me For Details.
I love how there's so much interest in protecting the identities of the accusers in this Cain "scandal" but no regard whatsoever in protecting the reputation of Cain himself from unsubstantiated slander. That aside, I'm pleased the gentleman behind "breaking" this story is honest enough to admit that he's not interested in clarifying any of the details in these allegations.
A piece from the New York Times on neuroscientist Dr. Michael Gazzaniga and his studies on brain function, free will and the applications of neuroscience to society and our legal system. His new book, "Who's In Charge: Free Will and the Science of the Brain," may be an excellent resource for the ongoing debate on free will amongst us.
2. Yet Another Way the World Might End
This from the Atlantic, a bit hysterical but looks at the ways in which misunderstandings between the US and China could lead to nuclear war (basically a retread of any number of articles one might have read circa 1969). I'm actually surprised this article didn't discuss the far more plausible cyberwar situation that could lead to tactical nuclear strikes or accidental launch.
3. Listen, I'm a Journalist. Don't Ask Me For Details.
I love how there's so much interest in protecting the identities of the accusers in this Cain "scandal" but no regard whatsoever in protecting the reputation of Cain himself from unsubstantiated slander. That aside, I'm pleased the gentleman behind "breaking" this story is honest enough to admit that he's not interested in clarifying any of the details in these allegations.
31.10.11
Early Edition
1. Mind-Reading Technology
The Economist, in a rare moment of hyperbole, gets a bit ahead of itself in declaring an era of mind-reading upon us. But they do raise the requisite questions about freedom and the relationship between the state and individual (see here). Clearly real mind-reading technology with any degree of scientific reliability is, if it’s possible at all, a long way off. And I’ve always been skeptical, or perhaps confused is a better word, about how one would verify the accuracy of the results of any mind-reading technology when ultimately such tests rely almost entirely upon the honesty of the test subject.
2. Skeptics Fire Back At BEST
Immovable climate skeptic James Delingpole of the UK Daily Telegraph responds to the BEST results that claim to prove global warming beyond dispute.
3. Surprise! The Media Finds More Dirt On Leading GOP Conservative Candidate!
Politco apparently has dug up two former co-workers at the National Restaurant Association that claim to have accused Herman Cain of sexual harassment back in the 90s. I’ll reserve judgment on whether the reporting on these allegations is accurate or not (though by early appearances they appear genuine). I’m more interested to see if Cain intends to play the Clarence Thomas card, which I think he has every right to do given the ongoing media narrative of racism being behind every attack on minority public figures in American history.
The Economist, in a rare moment of hyperbole, gets a bit ahead of itself in declaring an era of mind-reading upon us. But they do raise the requisite questions about freedom and the relationship between the state and individual (see here). Clearly real mind-reading technology with any degree of scientific reliability is, if it’s possible at all, a long way off. And I’ve always been skeptical, or perhaps confused is a better word, about how one would verify the accuracy of the results of any mind-reading technology when ultimately such tests rely almost entirely upon the honesty of the test subject.
2. Skeptics Fire Back At BEST
Immovable climate skeptic James Delingpole of the UK Daily Telegraph responds to the BEST results that claim to prove global warming beyond dispute.
3. Surprise! The Media Finds More Dirt On Leading GOP Conservative Candidate!
Politco apparently has dug up two former co-workers at the National Restaurant Association that claim to have accused Herman Cain of sexual harassment back in the 90s. I’ll reserve judgment on whether the reporting on these allegations is accurate or not (though by early appearances they appear genuine). I’m more interested to see if Cain intends to play the Clarence Thomas card, which I think he has every right to do given the ongoing media narrative of racism being behind every attack on minority public figures in American history.
28.10.11
Early Edition
1. Perry May Duck Future Debates
When you look and sound like a retarded chimp up past his bedtime during these debates I can imagine why you’d want to avoid as many of them as possible.
2. Paul Ryan’s Stock Continues to Rise
Peggy Noonan contrasts the Obama strategy of mindless, petty division with Paul Ryan’s thoughtful style of problem solving supported by carefully explained philosophy. If you haven’t watched Ryan’s speech at the Heritage Foundation you might want to check it out here, it was very well done and should serve to both shame and motivate the President to clean up his act.
3. The Speed of Thought
Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman talks to NPR about human thought and how he thinks we’re not as great as we think we are at decision-making. His theories of System 1 and System 2 thinking are very relevant to previous conversations on free will and unconscious versus conscious thought. While Kahneman does not advance a “no free will” position, he does emphasize the overwhelming influence of chemicals, etc on brain activity and, consequently, decision-making.
When you look and sound like a retarded chimp up past his bedtime during these debates I can imagine why you’d want to avoid as many of them as possible.
2. Paul Ryan’s Stock Continues to Rise
Peggy Noonan contrasts the Obama strategy of mindless, petty division with Paul Ryan’s thoughtful style of problem solving supported by carefully explained philosophy. If you haven’t watched Ryan’s speech at the Heritage Foundation you might want to check it out here, it was very well done and should serve to both shame and motivate the President to clean up his act.
3. The Speed of Thought
Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman talks to NPR about human thought and how he thinks we’re not as great as we think we are at decision-making. His theories of System 1 and System 2 thinking are very relevant to previous conversations on free will and unconscious versus conscious thought. While Kahneman does not advance a “no free will” position, he does emphasize the overwhelming influence of chemicals, etc on brain activity and, consequently, decision-making.
27.10.11
Late Edition
1. Filmmaker Claims Photographic Proof of Alien Influence
Give me a computer with SimpleText and I’ll give you an “attributable” Stephen Hawking quote too. I’m sorry, too soon?
2. CBO Chief: There’s No Way To Determine If Stimulus Created Jobs, Major Tax Reform Will Lead To Growth
Somebody’s got to put a muzzle on this loose cannon Elmendorf. He’s too concerned about sound fiscal and budgetary policy to understand what really matters here. Which, clearly, is re-election.
3. FoxNews Panel Embarrassed To Have To Interview Ron Paul
Great discussion, though some of the questions are softball time-wasters. Juan Williams can’t help but prod Ron Paul about a third party run (which can only help Obama). Krauthammer looks like someone pooped in his Fruit Loops when Paul talks about al Qaeda in Iraq. Glad to see Paul understands his delivery needs improvement, question is what he’s going to do about it. He did surprise me when he said he’d probably vote for the FairTax (with some reservations). Great thing about a Paul presidency is that the worst case scenario is that he’s completely marginalized and ignored, his veto overriden on issues with overwhelming Congressional support, which is something that would tickle him pink anyway (the executive branch being marginalized by Congress, that is).
Give me a computer with SimpleText and I’ll give you an “attributable” Stephen Hawking quote too. I’m sorry, too soon?
2. CBO Chief: There’s No Way To Determine If Stimulus Created Jobs, Major Tax Reform Will Lead To Growth
Somebody’s got to put a muzzle on this loose cannon Elmendorf. He’s too concerned about sound fiscal and budgetary policy to understand what really matters here. Which, clearly, is re-election.
3. FoxNews Panel Embarrassed To Have To Interview Ron Paul
Great discussion, though some of the questions are softball time-wasters. Juan Williams can’t help but prod Ron Paul about a third party run (which can only help Obama). Krauthammer looks like someone pooped in his Fruit Loops when Paul talks about al Qaeda in Iraq. Glad to see Paul understands his delivery needs improvement, question is what he’s going to do about it. He did surprise me when he said he’d probably vote for the FairTax (with some reservations). Great thing about a Paul presidency is that the worst case scenario is that he’s completely marginalized and ignored, his veto overriden on issues with overwhelming Congressional support, which is something that would tickle him pink anyway (the executive branch being marginalized by Congress, that is).
26.10.11
Late Edition
1. More On Cain’s Abortion Stance
This is a tortured apologia for Cain’s equivocating on the abortion issue. The author is projecting his own libertarian predispositions on Cain, which is probably what Cain is going for with his confounding and inarticulate attempts to clarify his position (perhaps he’s learning a thing or two from Obama’s 2008 campaign). I think Cain is trying to have it both ways, and if he thinks that abortion should be legal in all cases either at the federal or state level but that he personally does not support it he’s going to have to say that pretty explicitly, otherwise he’s going to face a backlash from somebody at some point. And I’d rather it be sooner than later so that, if he’s our nominee, he’s had plenty of time to recover prior to the general. Part of his strategy, however, may be to play to the black community, who has a disproportionately large figure of women that undergo abortions. Right or wrong, this issue is too huge to be treated with such carelessness.
2. Libertarian Cato Institute Gives Perry Tax Plan a B+
Finds the Perry flat tax falls short in the elimination of loopholes, deductions, exemptions, etc, and seeks clarification on how the optional element will work (switch back from year to year or commit for a fixed period?), whether it eliminates the double tax on interest, and a few other things. Echoes my comments from yesterday about preferring this system over Cain’s 9-9-9 plan.
3. Can The US Learn To Live With Islamism?
Great piece from Time wondering if the West can and will learn to live with Islamist democracies in the Arab world.
4. Professor A$$douche Almost Had Me…
…Until I reached the last two paragraphs.
This is a tortured apologia for Cain’s equivocating on the abortion issue. The author is projecting his own libertarian predispositions on Cain, which is probably what Cain is going for with his confounding and inarticulate attempts to clarify his position (perhaps he’s learning a thing or two from Obama’s 2008 campaign). I think Cain is trying to have it both ways, and if he thinks that abortion should be legal in all cases either at the federal or state level but that he personally does not support it he’s going to have to say that pretty explicitly, otherwise he’s going to face a backlash from somebody at some point. And I’d rather it be sooner than later so that, if he’s our nominee, he’s had plenty of time to recover prior to the general. Part of his strategy, however, may be to play to the black community, who has a disproportionately large figure of women that undergo abortions. Right or wrong, this issue is too huge to be treated with such carelessness.
2. Libertarian Cato Institute Gives Perry Tax Plan a B+
Finds the Perry flat tax falls short in the elimination of loopholes, deductions, exemptions, etc, and seeks clarification on how the optional element will work (switch back from year to year or commit for a fixed period?), whether it eliminates the double tax on interest, and a few other things. Echoes my comments from yesterday about preferring this system over Cain’s 9-9-9 plan.
3. Can The US Learn To Live With Islamism?
Great piece from Time wondering if the West can and will learn to live with Islamist democracies in the Arab world.
4. Professor A$$douche Almost Had Me…
…Until I reached the last two paragraphs.
Morning Extra
The Economist published an interesting rundown on changes in consumer spending during 2007-2010. Nothing earth-shattering, but there's a few noteworthy outliers:
"Processed vegetables" (I read this as canned food) - has increased in real dollars, but the jump in nominal dollars is what's really scary. We may be trying to be "healthier", but more likely I think poorer people are priced out of fresh and are switching to canned, which is also not cheap these days. Ominous.
Real spending on tobacco, as the article notes, is way down. That's good I guess. I wonder how much is health-driven, and how much is due to a spat of statewide public smoking bans in the past few years?
Spending on eating out has dropped dramatically in terms of real dollars, and interestingly in similar proportion to spending on alcohol.
Utilities/home fuel spending is way way up, reflecting higher oil prices and a stressed electrical grid, most likely.
Last tidbit: Spending on gasoline and clothing both decreased overall, but both showed parallel decreases in real and nominal spending. This indicates to me that consumption parallels price changes in an almost 1:1 manner, but that could be a red herring. I am, after all, not an economist.
"Processed vegetables" (I read this as canned food) - has increased in real dollars, but the jump in nominal dollars is what's really scary. We may be trying to be "healthier", but more likely I think poorer people are priced out of fresh and are switching to canned, which is also not cheap these days. Ominous.
Real spending on tobacco, as the article notes, is way down. That's good I guess. I wonder how much is health-driven, and how much is due to a spat of statewide public smoking bans in the past few years?
Spending on eating out has dropped dramatically in terms of real dollars, and interestingly in similar proportion to spending on alcohol.
Utilities/home fuel spending is way way up, reflecting higher oil prices and a stressed electrical grid, most likely.
Last tidbit: Spending on gasoline and clothing both decreased overall, but both showed parallel decreases in real and nominal spending. This indicates to me that consumption parallels price changes in an almost 1:1 manner, but that could be a red herring. I am, after all, not an economist.
Early Edition
1. South Dakota Social Services Is Kidnapping Children
I understand that when underprivileged folks have a microphone thrust into their face and a sympathetic ear offerred that embellishment is a common occurrence, but regardless of whether the Howes are embellishing their story for the benefit of the reporter, this situation is still totally unacceptable. Social workers unilaterally empowered to take your children away on suspicion of wrongdoing? Forget the cultural elements of this story, this is wrong no matter where it occurs. Are there families out there neglecting, abusing and exploiting their children? Absolutely there are, and that is unforgivably tragic. But empowering government bureaucrats to steal your children and bar you from accessing them without due process of law? The absolute apathy of the bureaucrats interviewed in this piece is staggering.
2. More On Tunisian Elections
I’m heartened by what I’m reading on this. A youth demographic that is suspicious of the leading Islamist party, a population jealous of its accumulated rights, and no clear majority in Parliament, meaning a coalition of secular and religious parties will be required in order to govern. The voting occurred without violence or, as far as we can tell, massive fraud.
3. Feds Targeting California Marijuana Growers
Given the way our government usually works/thinks regarding lining its pockets and increasing the breadth of its authority, I’m continually amazed that legalization of marijuana has not gotten more traction. Legalizing would afford federal and state governments an enormous source of new tax revenues, a brand new industry to regulate, and so much else. But I guess then the US attorney’s office couldn’t order private landowners to use their property in a certain way or risk losing it altogether.
I understand that when underprivileged folks have a microphone thrust into their face and a sympathetic ear offerred that embellishment is a common occurrence, but regardless of whether the Howes are embellishing their story for the benefit of the reporter, this situation is still totally unacceptable. Social workers unilaterally empowered to take your children away on suspicion of wrongdoing? Forget the cultural elements of this story, this is wrong no matter where it occurs. Are there families out there neglecting, abusing and exploiting their children? Absolutely there are, and that is unforgivably tragic. But empowering government bureaucrats to steal your children and bar you from accessing them without due process of law? The absolute apathy of the bureaucrats interviewed in this piece is staggering.
2. More On Tunisian Elections
I’m heartened by what I’m reading on this. A youth demographic that is suspicious of the leading Islamist party, a population jealous of its accumulated rights, and no clear majority in Parliament, meaning a coalition of secular and religious parties will be required in order to govern. The voting occurred without violence or, as far as we can tell, massive fraud.
3. Feds Targeting California Marijuana Growers
Given the way our government usually works/thinks regarding lining its pockets and increasing the breadth of its authority, I’m continually amazed that legalization of marijuana has not gotten more traction. Legalizing would afford federal and state governments an enormous source of new tax revenues, a brand new industry to regulate, and so much else. But I guess then the US attorney’s office couldn’t order private landowners to use their property in a certain way or risk losing it altogether.
25.10.11
Late Edition
1. OMG, The Earth Has Warmed For Reals
I know there are hardcore spectics out there that don’t think that warming is occurring but I think the vast majority of folks are more skeptical of the anthropogenic argument than the actual warming. “Proving” that warming is occurring or has occurred is just fine, the planet has done so many times in its history. And another thing: why would any climate scientist, given the checkered recent history of shoddy peer review and politicization, even think about deviating from the standard peer review process by doing what they have done and inviting fanfare and attention to their work prior to extensive peer review? Also, I thought this was settled science as of like 2008 or something. They’re still doing studies on this?
2. Google Gets a Gold Star
Great big gold star for Google, but while the requests they can disclose are a great thing, I’m really far more concerned about the more than 50,000 requests issued via “National Security Letter” or the other “requests” Google is forced to cooperate with thanks to the sweeping powers granted to the federal government to combat terrorism.
3. Can We Just Agree That Everyone Is Crazy?
The war over who is more anti-science continues to rage on. Kind of funny to watch. Still a plague on both their houses; religion and irrationality take many guises and can never be purged entirely from the human condition. It’s the folks who want to compel me to do something about their irrational beliefs that ought to be publicly derided.
I know there are hardcore spectics out there that don’t think that warming is occurring but I think the vast majority of folks are more skeptical of the anthropogenic argument than the actual warming. “Proving” that warming is occurring or has occurred is just fine, the planet has done so many times in its history. And another thing: why would any climate scientist, given the checkered recent history of shoddy peer review and politicization, even think about deviating from the standard peer review process by doing what they have done and inviting fanfare and attention to their work prior to extensive peer review? Also, I thought this was settled science as of like 2008 or something. They’re still doing studies on this?
2. Google Gets a Gold Star
Great big gold star for Google, but while the requests they can disclose are a great thing, I’m really far more concerned about the more than 50,000 requests issued via “National Security Letter” or the other “requests” Google is forced to cooperate with thanks to the sweeping powers granted to the federal government to combat terrorism.
3. Can We Just Agree That Everyone Is Crazy?
The war over who is more anti-science continues to rage on. Kind of funny to watch. Still a plague on both their houses; religion and irrationality take many guises and can never be purged entirely from the human condition. It’s the folks who want to compel me to do something about their irrational beliefs that ought to be publicly derided.
Early Edition
1. Paul Raises $2.75M in Five Days
I read these articles and, while $3 million is only a fraction of the $15 million a complete chucklehead like Perry has on hand, am amazed at the fact that this figure is composed almost entirely of small donations from individuals rather than major corporations, special interests, etc. It makes one wonder what Paul would be capable of if he were to take on serious financial backers. But then I suppose he wouldn’t be Ron Paul. Unless of course those backers understood and agreed that their support would not equate to political favors in a Paul administration. But then why would they back him…
2. Steve Forbes… I Mean Rick Perry… Unveils New Tax Plan
Perry hits all the high notes of GOP fiscal rhetoric with his new plan. He’s recycling Forbes’flat federal income tax plan with some changes from the 1996 2000 GOP primaries (small wonder, considering Forbes is both advising and now officially backing Perry) and throwing in a Balanced Budget Amendment, entitlement reform, and a limitation on taxation to in-country income only. He also says the corporate income tax would first be lowered to 20%, then temporarily lowered to 5.25% as a short term measure to lure offshore investments back to the US. While I think Perry’s a dead end, this is a smart campaign move. People liked “9-9-9” because it was a slogan that kept things simple. Well, Perry’s making things even simpler with just “20”. That’s one number less than Cain! The one to cinch the nomination will be the first to reach a single digit slogan for their tax reform plan. There isn’t too much about Perry’s plan I hate, and considering it came from Forbes that makes sense. I wish it were an abolition of the current income tax and a replacement with a federal consumption tax but if I have to pick between a plan that has a flat consumption tax coupled with a personal income tax and a corporate income tax and a plan that just has a flat personal income tax and corporate income tax then I think I’ll go with the latter. The fewer and lower the taxes Americans pay the better off we are.
3. Present-Day David Brooks Continues To Wish He Could Go Back In Time and B*tch-Slap 2008 David Brooks
Brooks sees Obama’s obvious play to his base as a losing strategy for re-election, and he’s absolutely right. Even if Obama clings tenaciously to his base, he’s going to alienate independents and conservatives even further (if that’s possible) and wind up with such a narrow share of the general election vote that he’ll make Jimmy Carter look like a rock star.
I read these articles and, while $3 million is only a fraction of the $15 million a complete chucklehead like Perry has on hand, am amazed at the fact that this figure is composed almost entirely of small donations from individuals rather than major corporations, special interests, etc. It makes one wonder what Paul would be capable of if he were to take on serious financial backers. But then I suppose he wouldn’t be Ron Paul. Unless of course those backers understood and agreed that their support would not equate to political favors in a Paul administration. But then why would they back him…
2. Steve Forbes… I Mean Rick Perry… Unveils New Tax Plan
Perry hits all the high notes of GOP fiscal rhetoric with his new plan. He’s recycling Forbes’flat federal income tax plan with some changes from the 1996 2000 GOP primaries (small wonder, considering Forbes is both advising and now officially backing Perry) and throwing in a Balanced Budget Amendment, entitlement reform, and a limitation on taxation to in-country income only. He also says the corporate income tax would first be lowered to 20%, then temporarily lowered to 5.25% as a short term measure to lure offshore investments back to the US. While I think Perry’s a dead end, this is a smart campaign move. People liked “9-9-9” because it was a slogan that kept things simple. Well, Perry’s making things even simpler with just “20”. That’s one number less than Cain! The one to cinch the nomination will be the first to reach a single digit slogan for their tax reform plan. There isn’t too much about Perry’s plan I hate, and considering it came from Forbes that makes sense. I wish it were an abolition of the current income tax and a replacement with a federal consumption tax but if I have to pick between a plan that has a flat consumption tax coupled with a personal income tax and a corporate income tax and a plan that just has a flat personal income tax and corporate income tax then I think I’ll go with the latter. The fewer and lower the taxes Americans pay the better off we are.
3. Present-Day David Brooks Continues To Wish He Could Go Back In Time and B*tch-Slap 2008 David Brooks
Brooks sees Obama’s obvious play to his base as a losing strategy for re-election, and he’s absolutely right. Even if Obama clings tenaciously to his base, he’s going to alienate independents and conservatives even further (if that’s possible) and wind up with such a narrow share of the general election vote that he’ll make Jimmy Carter look like a rock star.
24.10.11
Late Edition
1. iSkin
The future is now. Turn your skin into a touchpad. This could revolutionize human intimacy. Wait, what? I mean ergonomics.
2. Whoops! Fundamentalism!
This is about as alarming a debut as you could imagine for the new Libyan government, short of calling for the destruction of Israel and decapitating a Western journalist on live television. Still, from what I understand this Jalil guy is at best a more secular moderate and at worst an opportunist. He's likely doing this to keep the Islamist elements of the revolution appeased until the difficult work of drawing up a constitution begins. If this Sharia thing survives a constitutional convention or Jalil and company start talking jihad, death to America, etc then I'll be really ill at ease. At least we can still withhold Ghadafi's frozen assets (I bet you thought I was going to say "corpse") if they keep talking crazy.
The future is now. Turn your skin into a touchpad. This could revolutionize human intimacy. Wait, what? I mean ergonomics.
2. Whoops! Fundamentalism!
This is about as alarming a debut as you could imagine for the new Libyan government, short of calling for the destruction of Israel and decapitating a Western journalist on live television. Still, from what I understand this Jalil guy is at best a more secular moderate and at worst an opportunist. He's likely doing this to keep the Islamist elements of the revolution appeased until the difficult work of drawing up a constitution begins. If this Sharia thing survives a constitutional convention or Jalil and company start talking jihad, death to America, etc then I'll be really ill at ease. At least we can still withhold Ghadafi's frozen assets (I bet you thought I was going to say "corpse") if they keep talking crazy.
Early Edition
1. Owning the Moon
This is absolutely ludicrous, particularly Bigelow’s claims that there are compelling and profitable reasons to stake out a claim on the moon. Owning the moon would without doubt not be profitable for the United States at all, at least not anytime this century. If private enterprise wants to make a go of it, I’m all for it. If they’re successful, the US can buy tracts of moon land from them on which to build whatever it likes. But for God’s sakes, no more space race nonsense!
2. Green Berets
I’m a bit torn on the US military contracting for alternative energy for strategic reasons. I absolutely understand the non-environmental motivation behind it, and in terms of government funding cutting-edge technologies or alternative energies, I’m of the mind that the military is really the only part of government that has any business doing it. But being intimately familiar with defense contracting and all the antics that go on in it, and coupled with the fiasco that the administration’s “green shoots” policy of alternative energy subsidies that essentially amount to kick-backs and crony capitalism, I have serious misgivings about how this will work out practically. And of course I’m extremely wary of the military being used to advance a political/environmental agenda.
3. Tunisian Elections
The latest on the Tunisian elections, the first free elections in the nation’s history. It’s too early to say anything with certainty, but the early leader seems to be a moderate Islamist party, which, from reports, seems to have been an expected development. The party’s willingness to join other coalitions, regardless of whether it wins an outright majority in the Parliament, in order to ensure this caretaker government is as broad and collaborative as possible is encouraging. Will continue to watch with interest.
4. School Report Cards to Include Your Child’s BMI?
This is insane, absolutely insane. An Ohio law that requires schools to measure their students’ BMIs and report them via the Ohio Health Department to their parents seems to be facing some broad resistance from state schools, with nearly 40% of the state’s school districts opting out of collecting the measurements. The argument, I would assume, for even involving the schools in this is that they provide lunch to the children five out of seven days of the week and so they’re in part responsible for the child’s health. But school lunch, which of course is in no way is required to be purchased at school, only constitutes 24% of the meals those children consume. The other whopping 76% comes from home. So why in the hell does this argument continue to gain traction (rhetorical question)?
This is absolutely ludicrous, particularly Bigelow’s claims that there are compelling and profitable reasons to stake out a claim on the moon. Owning the moon would without doubt not be profitable for the United States at all, at least not anytime this century. If private enterprise wants to make a go of it, I’m all for it. If they’re successful, the US can buy tracts of moon land from them on which to build whatever it likes. But for God’s sakes, no more space race nonsense!
2. Green Berets
I’m a bit torn on the US military contracting for alternative energy for strategic reasons. I absolutely understand the non-environmental motivation behind it, and in terms of government funding cutting-edge technologies or alternative energies, I’m of the mind that the military is really the only part of government that has any business doing it. But being intimately familiar with defense contracting and all the antics that go on in it, and coupled with the fiasco that the administration’s “green shoots” policy of alternative energy subsidies that essentially amount to kick-backs and crony capitalism, I have serious misgivings about how this will work out practically. And of course I’m extremely wary of the military being used to advance a political/environmental agenda.
3. Tunisian Elections
The latest on the Tunisian elections, the first free elections in the nation’s history. It’s too early to say anything with certainty, but the early leader seems to be a moderate Islamist party, which, from reports, seems to have been an expected development. The party’s willingness to join other coalitions, regardless of whether it wins an outright majority in the Parliament, in order to ensure this caretaker government is as broad and collaborative as possible is encouraging. Will continue to watch with interest.
4. School Report Cards to Include Your Child’s BMI?
This is insane, absolutely insane. An Ohio law that requires schools to measure their students’ BMIs and report them via the Ohio Health Department to their parents seems to be facing some broad resistance from state schools, with nearly 40% of the state’s school districts opting out of collecting the measurements. The argument, I would assume, for even involving the schools in this is that they provide lunch to the children five out of seven days of the week and so they’re in part responsible for the child’s health. But school lunch, which of course is in no way is required to be purchased at school, only constitutes 24% of the meals those children consume. The other whopping 76% comes from home. So why in the hell does this argument continue to gain traction (rhetorical question)?
21.10.11
Friday Perspectives
1. Response to So About That International Banking Conspiracy
This post should be actually be title "Why engineers should not do economics" or "Stock Market 101". Originally this looked like a very interesting piece. Some engineers in Europe were using an advanced network modeling algorithm on stock ownership ties: a statistical method I have considered using myself, and an area of research quite in line with my own. The implications of the study have such import as well. The world's corporations are controlled by the likes of Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Franklin Templeton...
...wait, Franklin Templeton? Investment banks controlling the world in a seedy web of lies makes sense... but an investment manager? The guys that hold retail brokerage accounts and issue mutual funds? I smell fish...
The problem is thus - They are looking where the shares of all the world's publicly held corporations sit, an interesting prospect. The problem with the Orbis Database they use is the problem with any public stock registry, you really just see where the stock is sitting. That can often be very different from who owns it. All these investment banks and managers show up because they have something in common - they have brokerages. And brokerages hold stock for other people. This is called holding stock in "street name". The physical stock certificate sits in vault at the brokerage - say UBS - and they mark in the books that Mr. Soros has 100,000 shares of Exxon mobile. It will show up that UBS holds the shares, but they don't own them or vote them. In the end, its a nifty statistical analysis that produces a pretty cool graphic, but if you wanted to know which financial institutions house most of the worlds shares, any broker or trader could have told you that. Good use of university resources.
2. Response to Life after Debt
If you view countries as corporations (which is typically a really bad analogy to make, but bear with me) this article actually makes a lot of sense. The US probably shouldn't be completely unleveraged - debt does in fact have its advantages. One of the primary advantages of debt to a company is that it commits excess cash to a purpose (paying off bondholders) and so managers are less likely to waste that money and endanger the company. The problem with the US, or any country, is that there is very little accountability for the public "managers" that decide how money gets spent. If money gets wasted - Oh well, not my money. This limits the disciplinary power of debt. Debt also provides cash which can be used in value added projects - again a problem for governments, because they tend not to add value. But some things they undertake do, such as infrastructure improvements. This means that governments, like corporations, have an "optimal" level of debt they should strive for. Ultimately, I think it would be very responsible if a political candidate actually addresses this. If someone came out and said, "We don't need to pay down the US debt, we just need to pay down any of it that isn't being invested in to fixed infrastructure" they will very much have impressed me.
This post should be actually be title "Why engineers should not do economics" or "Stock Market 101". Originally this looked like a very interesting piece. Some engineers in Europe were using an advanced network modeling algorithm on stock ownership ties: a statistical method I have considered using myself, and an area of research quite in line with my own. The implications of the study have such import as well. The world's corporations are controlled by the likes of Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Franklin Templeton...
...wait, Franklin Templeton? Investment banks controlling the world in a seedy web of lies makes sense... but an investment manager? The guys that hold retail brokerage accounts and issue mutual funds? I smell fish...
The problem is thus - They are looking where the shares of all the world's publicly held corporations sit, an interesting prospect. The problem with the Orbis Database they use is the problem with any public stock registry, you really just see where the stock is sitting. That can often be very different from who owns it. All these investment banks and managers show up because they have something in common - they have brokerages. And brokerages hold stock for other people. This is called holding stock in "street name". The physical stock certificate sits in vault at the brokerage - say UBS - and they mark in the books that Mr. Soros has 100,000 shares of Exxon mobile. It will show up that UBS holds the shares, but they don't own them or vote them. In the end, its a nifty statistical analysis that produces a pretty cool graphic, but if you wanted to know which financial institutions house most of the worlds shares, any broker or trader could have told you that. Good use of university resources.
2. Response to Life after Debt
If you view countries as corporations (which is typically a really bad analogy to make, but bear with me) this article actually makes a lot of sense. The US probably shouldn't be completely unleveraged - debt does in fact have its advantages. One of the primary advantages of debt to a company is that it commits excess cash to a purpose (paying off bondholders) and so managers are less likely to waste that money and endanger the company. The problem with the US, or any country, is that there is very little accountability for the public "managers" that decide how money gets spent. If money gets wasted - Oh well, not my money. This limits the disciplinary power of debt. Debt also provides cash which can be used in value added projects - again a problem for governments, because they tend not to add value. But some things they undertake do, such as infrastructure improvements. This means that governments, like corporations, have an "optimal" level of debt they should strive for. Ultimately, I think it would be very responsible if a political candidate actually addresses this. If someone came out and said, "We don't need to pay down the US debt, we just need to pay down any of it that isn't being invested in to fixed infrastructure" they will very much have impressed me.
Late Edition
1. Full Troop Withdrawal From Iraq
All politics aside, this is great news, so long as our contractors continue to train Iraqi military and police forces and the copious intelligence assets that we have undoubtedly put into play at all levels of the Iraqi government and military keep feeding us everything they have on Iran. The question is, will these troops come home only to find themselves refitted for Afghan deployment in another six months?
2. Ripple Effect of Gaddafi’s Death
For the most part I’m as cynical as they come. The jury is still out on whether the Arab Spring’s democratic ideal will or even can be realized in a region with little democratic tradition and sharp tribal and sectarian divides. It’s not looking good in Egypt where, rather than tearing out a regime root and branch, the opposition chased Mubarak from power while his military bureacracy was allowed to remain in control of the state. Tunisia looks more promising, though until the results of their elections it’s difficult to say if anything resembling a functioning government has been established to ratify a constitution. Now Libya, with the death of Gaddafi and the fall of Sirte, is under the total control of the disparate opposition groups that compose the NTC. Disarming the militias, locking up weapons and forming a national army and police force will be the first keys to ensuring a democratic process free of political violence can even take place. Until those things are undertaken, however, much is up in the air. But occasionally the cynic in me is overtaken by the Jeffersonian revolutionary, and I can’t help but cheer when a dictator is pulled out of a sewer drain and brought to rough justice by the people he oppressed with impunity for nearly half a century. I become even more thrilled when I hear the opposition movements in Syria and Yemen warning their authoritarian regimes to take a good long look: they’re next. Sic semper tyrannus, indeed. No longer just the motto of the State of Virginia, but the impetus of a broad democratic movement in a land with a history that ought to make such a phenomenon impossible. While it’s entirely possible, perhaps even likely, that all of these movements may wind up more closely resembling the French and Iranian Revolutions than the American, for the time being I continue to quietly root for these democratic opposition movements, tempering my enthusiasm with the healthy and cynical axiom that liberty is not, in fact, inevitable, and that its birth is one of arduous labor, frequent violence, and chaos.
3. “Life After Debt”
This is so depressing to read given our current state of decrepitude. It’s also disturbing and horrific how reliant our country is upon debt.
All politics aside, this is great news, so long as our contractors continue to train Iraqi military and police forces and the copious intelligence assets that we have undoubtedly put into play at all levels of the Iraqi government and military keep feeding us everything they have on Iran. The question is, will these troops come home only to find themselves refitted for Afghan deployment in another six months?
2. Ripple Effect of Gaddafi’s Death
For the most part I’m as cynical as they come. The jury is still out on whether the Arab Spring’s democratic ideal will or even can be realized in a region with little democratic tradition and sharp tribal and sectarian divides. It’s not looking good in Egypt where, rather than tearing out a regime root and branch, the opposition chased Mubarak from power while his military bureacracy was allowed to remain in control of the state. Tunisia looks more promising, though until the results of their elections it’s difficult to say if anything resembling a functioning government has been established to ratify a constitution. Now Libya, with the death of Gaddafi and the fall of Sirte, is under the total control of the disparate opposition groups that compose the NTC. Disarming the militias, locking up weapons and forming a national army and police force will be the first keys to ensuring a democratic process free of political violence can even take place. Until those things are undertaken, however, much is up in the air. But occasionally the cynic in me is overtaken by the Jeffersonian revolutionary, and I can’t help but cheer when a dictator is pulled out of a sewer drain and brought to rough justice by the people he oppressed with impunity for nearly half a century. I become even more thrilled when I hear the opposition movements in Syria and Yemen warning their authoritarian regimes to take a good long look: they’re next. Sic semper tyrannus, indeed. No longer just the motto of the State of Virginia, but the impetus of a broad democratic movement in a land with a history that ought to make such a phenomenon impossible. While it’s entirely possible, perhaps even likely, that all of these movements may wind up more closely resembling the French and Iranian Revolutions than the American, for the time being I continue to quietly root for these democratic opposition movements, tempering my enthusiasm with the healthy and cynical axiom that liberty is not, in fact, inevitable, and that its birth is one of arduous labor, frequent violence, and chaos.
3. “Life After Debt”
This is so depressing to read given our current state of decrepitude. It’s also disturbing and horrific how reliant our country is upon debt.
Early Edition
1. Experience and the Presidency
An article excoriating Obama’s lack of leadership experience as the underlying factor in his presidency’s failure. It also should serve as a reminder that the challenger he faces in 2012 needs to have relevant leadership experience combined with a demonstrable mastery of the issues confronting the next president (foreign policy, economy and budget). A lot of people would interpret this as necessarily a Washington insider, but this is absolutely not the case. There are many members of Congress that have made a career opposing establishment culture, and there are many governors across the country whose entire agenda has been driven by opposition to Washington and the protection of their state’s interest. All that to say, the whole Tea Party 2010 phenomenon was great; inexperienced newcomers for whom politics is merely the expression of concerned citizenry and not a career is exactly what the House of Respresentatives is all about. But when we start talking about the presidency, it’s important for those who oppose Obama on the grounds that he is a radical neophyte to avoid falling into the hypocritical trap of pushing an equally bumbling novice into his place on the grounds of ideological purity.
2. Libya
There’s a lot of talk of Libya being a vindication of President Obama’s “foreign policy” (I’m frankly not sure if President Obama has a foreign policy, or if he’s outsourced it all to Secretary Clinton). I do have to say that, in broad strokes, I think President Obama got Libya right (though his execution was sloppy and downright foolish in certain respects). Before I get drowned out by the inevitable caterwauling, what I mean by that is that he had the sense/boldness to pursue a policy in which the United States diffused responsibility for military action in an Arab nation among other participants (including Arabs) and played a role of, at best, a first among equals. Whether or not President Obama did this out of courage is debatable, but the move itself was politically courageous in that it defied the jingoistic notion parroted by the neocons that America must lead whatever fight it decides to pursue (we do not; we should merely be the best fighter among many for reasons of national pride). If the United States makes a conscious decision to rollback the neocon nation-building agenda that’s crippled our ability to credibly exercise our foreign policy, then adventures like the one in Libya become what they used to be only two decades ago: drop in the bucket investments that yield huge dividends for minimal costs. Here is a situation where the Alliance and the United Nations responded to the direct and explicit call of oppressed peoples representing a broad opposition movement to assist them in establishing a pluralistic government, pledged to pay us back for our involvement, and did not require the deployment of conventional ground forces on our part or an indefinite commitment. The total cost to date has been roughly $2 billion, all of which could be paid back by the Libyan NTC if Gaddafi’s frozen assets (roughly $32 billion) are unfrozen and turned over to the NTC, minus our cut. I don’t want this to turn into a full-blown article about the merits of the Libyan operation, I imagine the other aspects of my views of its merits will be borne out in ensuing commentary.
3. “Clovis First” Officially Dead
And neolithic human civilization, with all its mastadon, giant-sloth and predatory flightless bird hunting, is badass.
4. Cain “Clarifies” His Pro-Life Stance
So it seems Cain was simply trying to deflect Piers Morgan’s questions about the extremity of his anti-abortion views and wasn’t putting forward a nuanced, “hands off” approach to abortion with respect to the federal government. Fail. Where I fault Cain is that, despite his reputation for plain-spokenness, he seems too often to try to wriggle out of difficult questions with misdirection (how often have you heard him give a quick, non-answer and then quickly say “Now, secondly…” and move onto another completely unrelated statement). He also sometimes doesn't seem to grasp the implications of his answers or statements to the public's perception of his agenda. The overall impression one gets from these repeated gaffes (he got roasted in the last debate for not only saying in an interview that he could see himself offering a transfer of Gitmo prisoners for a captured American soldier, but his bumbling attempts to completely disown the statement) is that there is either no cohesive policy underlining his campaign or that he is far too unprepared for these interviews in terms of mastering the issues. Bottom line is, while I tried to give him a chance, Herman Cain does not seem to deserve his front-runner spot.
An article excoriating Obama’s lack of leadership experience as the underlying factor in his presidency’s failure. It also should serve as a reminder that the challenger he faces in 2012 needs to have relevant leadership experience combined with a demonstrable mastery of the issues confronting the next president (foreign policy, economy and budget). A lot of people would interpret this as necessarily a Washington insider, but this is absolutely not the case. There are many members of Congress that have made a career opposing establishment culture, and there are many governors across the country whose entire agenda has been driven by opposition to Washington and the protection of their state’s interest. All that to say, the whole Tea Party 2010 phenomenon was great; inexperienced newcomers for whom politics is merely the expression of concerned citizenry and not a career is exactly what the House of Respresentatives is all about. But when we start talking about the presidency, it’s important for those who oppose Obama on the grounds that he is a radical neophyte to avoid falling into the hypocritical trap of pushing an equally bumbling novice into his place on the grounds of ideological purity.
2. Libya
There’s a lot of talk of Libya being a vindication of President Obama’s “foreign policy” (I’m frankly not sure if President Obama has a foreign policy, or if he’s outsourced it all to Secretary Clinton). I do have to say that, in broad strokes, I think President Obama got Libya right (though his execution was sloppy and downright foolish in certain respects). Before I get drowned out by the inevitable caterwauling, what I mean by that is that he had the sense/boldness to pursue a policy in which the United States diffused responsibility for military action in an Arab nation among other participants (including Arabs) and played a role of, at best, a first among equals. Whether or not President Obama did this out of courage is debatable, but the move itself was politically courageous in that it defied the jingoistic notion parroted by the neocons that America must lead whatever fight it decides to pursue (we do not; we should merely be the best fighter among many for reasons of national pride). If the United States makes a conscious decision to rollback the neocon nation-building agenda that’s crippled our ability to credibly exercise our foreign policy, then adventures like the one in Libya become what they used to be only two decades ago: drop in the bucket investments that yield huge dividends for minimal costs. Here is a situation where the Alliance and the United Nations responded to the direct and explicit call of oppressed peoples representing a broad opposition movement to assist them in establishing a pluralistic government, pledged to pay us back for our involvement, and did not require the deployment of conventional ground forces on our part or an indefinite commitment. The total cost to date has been roughly $2 billion, all of which could be paid back by the Libyan NTC if Gaddafi’s frozen assets (roughly $32 billion) are unfrozen and turned over to the NTC, minus our cut. I don’t want this to turn into a full-blown article about the merits of the Libyan operation, I imagine the other aspects of my views of its merits will be borne out in ensuing commentary.
3. “Clovis First” Officially Dead
And neolithic human civilization, with all its mastadon, giant-sloth and predatory flightless bird hunting, is badass.
4. Cain “Clarifies” His Pro-Life Stance
So it seems Cain was simply trying to deflect Piers Morgan’s questions about the extremity of his anti-abortion views and wasn’t putting forward a nuanced, “hands off” approach to abortion with respect to the federal government. Fail. Where I fault Cain is that, despite his reputation for plain-spokenness, he seems too often to try to wriggle out of difficult questions with misdirection (how often have you heard him give a quick, non-answer and then quickly say “Now, secondly…” and move onto another completely unrelated statement). He also sometimes doesn't seem to grasp the implications of his answers or statements to the public's perception of his agenda. The overall impression one gets from these repeated gaffes (he got roasted in the last debate for not only saying in an interview that he could see himself offering a transfer of Gitmo prisoners for a captured American soldier, but his bumbling attempts to completely disown the statement) is that there is either no cohesive policy underlining his campaign or that he is far too unprepared for these interviews in terms of mastering the issues. Bottom line is, while I tried to give him a chance, Herman Cain does not seem to deserve his front-runner spot.
20.10.11
Late Edition
1. Cain Is Totally Befuddling
In this video it sounds like Herman Cain is saying that he is opposed to any kind of federal abortion ban, though he is personally opposed to abortion in all cases. I'm not entirely sure that's the position he's articulated in the past, however. Either he tried to dodge Piers Morgan with a deceptive little sidebar to avoid discussing the extremity of his anti-abortion position, or this is his legit policy position. I don't know the answer, and would be grateful if someone could provide clarity.
2. So About That International Banking Conspiracy....
Very interesting article from PopSci on a report that has found that a very tightly knit network of companies control the entire global economy in a model that resembles an economic "super-entity," as they put it.
3. Carrying Capacity in a World of 7 Billion
I'm sure this article will startle some, but I take a rather stoic approach to this. So long as market pressures aren't too heavily suppressed, the developed and developing world will naturally adjust to the increased resource pressures. It's the undeveloped world that will continue to have minimal carrying capacity and face massive die-offs if left unassisted, over-exploited and in perpetual conflict.
In this video it sounds like Herman Cain is saying that he is opposed to any kind of federal abortion ban, though he is personally opposed to abortion in all cases. I'm not entirely sure that's the position he's articulated in the past, however. Either he tried to dodge Piers Morgan with a deceptive little sidebar to avoid discussing the extremity of his anti-abortion position, or this is his legit policy position. I don't know the answer, and would be grateful if someone could provide clarity.
2. So About That International Banking Conspiracy....
Very interesting article from PopSci on a report that has found that a very tightly knit network of companies control the entire global economy in a model that resembles an economic "super-entity," as they put it.
3. Carrying Capacity in a World of 7 Billion
I'm sure this article will startle some, but I take a rather stoic approach to this. So long as market pressures aren't too heavily suppressed, the developed and developing world will naturally adjust to the increased resource pressures. It's the undeveloped world that will continue to have minimal carrying capacity and face massive die-offs if left unassisted, over-exploited and in perpetual conflict.
Early Edition
1. Early Reports of Ghadafi’s Capture or Possible Death
He knew the risks when he opted for a protective detail consisting of attractive young women.
2. South Carolina Voting Reform
Great story on South Carolina’s voting reform law that requires a state-issued photo ID in order to vote. The typical liberal opposition based on the lack of access on the part of the poor and elderly to such IDs is examined and, I have to say, is not very compelling. A handful of examples that are said to represent a significant demographic are cited, but in nearly every case they are elderly minority folks that seem to suffer more from lack of motivation than lack of means. The state even goes so far as to drive out to one of the people referenced in the story and get their ID taken care of within three days. Indeed, it looks like South Carolina is offerring free transportation to anyone in need of a state-issued photo ID in order to ensure that every opportunity is afforded to citizens to avoid disenfranchisement. I still think the risk posed to a free society from fraud outweighs the benefit of “lassaiz-faire” voting rights without any attempt at ID verification. In two or three more generations there will be no excuse whatsoever for not being able to produce a state-issued photo ID at the polls. The new low-income senior citizens at that time will have grown up in the system, had their two cars, internet and flat screen televisions.
3. Santorum on Gay Marriage
Was pleased to see Krauthammer challenge Santorum on gay marriage. While Santorum does argue passionately and with evident political skill, the fundamental foundation of his argument is contradictory to his supposed devotion to small government with limited rights. He would cede authority to the state to make a determination as to not only what is in the best interests of the individual, but what is best for the children. If this were a discussion on education, Santorum would be railing about the federal government making unilateral decisions about what must and must not be in the curriculum on the grounds that parents and localities are in a better position to judge what is best for their children (and incidentally he would be right). But on marriage, Santorum is willing to leverage his social views via the coercion of the state to enforce his particular vision of what is best for other people’s children. More than a little hypocritical.
4. Last Gasp of the Neocons
Leslie Gelb with a piece on what he calls the resurrection of the neocons, brought about by the Iranian provocation. What he fears is a resurrection I consider to be their last gasp. Going to war with Iran is not something to be taken lightly and certainly something for which our country is not prepared. Something must be done, make no mistake, but a full-fledged war should be an avenue of last resort. War with Iran would require all of our resources and a mental readiness to confront their almost certain use of the most brutal terrorism within US borders as a means to wage it.
He knew the risks when he opted for a protective detail consisting of attractive young women.
2. South Carolina Voting Reform
Great story on South Carolina’s voting reform law that requires a state-issued photo ID in order to vote. The typical liberal opposition based on the lack of access on the part of the poor and elderly to such IDs is examined and, I have to say, is not very compelling. A handful of examples that are said to represent a significant demographic are cited, but in nearly every case they are elderly minority folks that seem to suffer more from lack of motivation than lack of means. The state even goes so far as to drive out to one of the people referenced in the story and get their ID taken care of within three days. Indeed, it looks like South Carolina is offerring free transportation to anyone in need of a state-issued photo ID in order to ensure that every opportunity is afforded to citizens to avoid disenfranchisement. I still think the risk posed to a free society from fraud outweighs the benefit of “lassaiz-faire” voting rights without any attempt at ID verification. In two or three more generations there will be no excuse whatsoever for not being able to produce a state-issued photo ID at the polls. The new low-income senior citizens at that time will have grown up in the system, had their two cars, internet and flat screen televisions.
3. Santorum on Gay Marriage
Was pleased to see Krauthammer challenge Santorum on gay marriage. While Santorum does argue passionately and with evident political skill, the fundamental foundation of his argument is contradictory to his supposed devotion to small government with limited rights. He would cede authority to the state to make a determination as to not only what is in the best interests of the individual, but what is best for the children. If this were a discussion on education, Santorum would be railing about the federal government making unilateral decisions about what must and must not be in the curriculum on the grounds that parents and localities are in a better position to judge what is best for their children (and incidentally he would be right). But on marriage, Santorum is willing to leverage his social views via the coercion of the state to enforce his particular vision of what is best for other people’s children. More than a little hypocritical.
4. Last Gasp of the Neocons
Leslie Gelb with a piece on what he calls the resurrection of the neocons, brought about by the Iranian provocation. What he fears is a resurrection I consider to be their last gasp. Going to war with Iran is not something to be taken lightly and certainly something for which our country is not prepared. Something must be done, make no mistake, but a full-fledged war should be an avenue of last resort. War with Iran would require all of our resources and a mental readiness to confront their almost certain use of the most brutal terrorism within US borders as a means to wage it.
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